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What does Patrick Brown’s disqualification mean for the Conservative leadership race?

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Strategists say Patrick Brown’s disqualification from the Conservative leadership race provides a leg-up to Pierre Poilievre — however Jean Charest should have an opportunity.

The Conservative Party has ejected Brown from the race, citing allegations that he broke financing guidelines. Brown denies these allegations and his marketing campaign says it is interesting the determination.

If the disqualification stands, Poilievre can have a transparent shot at the Conservative leadership, mentioned Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke.

“I think his odds of winning have gone from 98 per cent to 100,” Teneycke, a associate at Rubicon Strategy, advised host Vassy Kapelos on CBC’s Power & Politics.

WATCH: Patrick Brown blames ouster on Conservative institution

Patrick Brown blames ouster on Conservative institution

Conservative leadership candidate Patrick Brown says he was ousted by social gathering institution. Political pundits Eric Grenier and Kory Teneycke be a part of Vassy Kapelos to react to his elimination, and predict the place the race goes from right here.

Teneycke pointed to the Poilievre marketing campaign’s declare that it has signed up greater than 300,000 of the 675,000 members the social gathering says can be eligible to vote.

The social gathering says the preliminary members checklist it launched to the campaigns final week signifies roughly 675,000 members are actually eligible to vote for the subsequent Conservative chief.

“It kind of puts the race very heavily in [Poilievre’s] favour in terms of the odds,” Teneycke mentioned.

Conservative strategist Shakir Chambers, a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies, mentioned that whereas Brown’s disqualification provides Poilievre a better path to victory, Charest might prevail if he courts Brown’s supporters.

Brown has mentioned he has recruited 150,000 new members to the social gathering. Chambers mentioned these votes might put Charest over the prime.

“It does create a path for [Charest] to boost his camp, boost his memberships. And if he can get to the second, third ballot, he has a much better chance of winning,” he mentioned.

But Éric Grenier, creator and writer at The Writ, mentioned that situation possible will depend upon what number of of Brown’s supporters nonetheless vote.

“Not all of those people are just going to go home and not vote because their candidate was disqualified. A lot of them will still end up voting,” Grenier advised Kapelos.

“Some of them will go to Jean Charest, but in all likelihood the 150,000 people that Patrick Brown signed up are going to vote in smaller numbers than the people who are signed up by other campaigns.”

If a major variety of Brown’s supporters tune out, that might give one other benefit to Poilievre, Grenier mentioned.

Polievre, Charest each claiming paths to victory

Both Poilievre and Charest are claiming they have paths to victory based mostly on the preliminary membership checklist and that Brown’s disqualification does not change their calculations.

The social gathering’s Leadership Election Organizing Committee [LEOC] didn’t break down the membership numbers by area or point out how many members every marketing campaign has signed up.

But the Poilievre and Charest campaigns say they’ve signed up sufficient members in sufficient ridings to win.

The guidelines of the Conservative leadership race award 100 factors to every of Canada’s 338 ridings. Those factors are distributed to the candidates based mostly on their share of the votes in every using. A candidate should win the majority of factors to safe the leadership.

Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre, proper, walks previous Jean Charest as he takes his place on stage throughout a debate at the Canada Strong and Free Network convention in Ottawa on May 5, 2022. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)

Poilievre and his marketing campaign have mentioned they’ve signed up greater than 300,000 members.

But in a message to supporters obtained by CBC, Charest’s marketing campaign says 450,000 social gathering members are positioned in fewer than 100 ridings.

“Following a detailed review of the preliminary membership list, we are confident we have very strong vote efficiency to secure the points we need to win the leadership race,” the message says.

The Charest marketing campaign additionally claims the former Quebec premier has secured 80 per cent of the factors throughout the 78 ridings in his dwelling province.

Poilievre’s marketing campaign rejects the concept that their candidate’s help is concentrated in a modest variety of ridings. The Conservative MP’s crew says it has signed up no less than 100 members in each using throughout the nation.

Poilievre’s marketing campaign despatched CBC a regional breakdown of his help — it claims he has over 25,000 votes in Quebec, 118,000 in Ontario and 71,000 in Alberta.

Those numbers do not embody those that could have been faraway from the preliminary checklist by the organizing committee, however the social gathering says solely about 6,500 names have been taken off the checklist for not following social gathering or Elections Canada guidelines.

“If Mr. Charest is so confident, we call on him to release his numbers as we have and spell out his path to victory,” Poilievre’s press secretary and marketing campaign spokesperson Anthony Koch mentioned in a textual content message.

Campaigns can use preliminary checklist to buy for votes

The reality {that a} marketing campaign signed up a sure variety of members does not assure these members will nonetheless vote in the fall — and those that do can nonetheless vote for one other candidate.

By releasing the preliminary checklist, the social gathering is now allowing all campaigns to cellphone or electronic mail social gathering members in the hope of convincing them to change sides. 

Ontario MP and leadership candidate Scott Aitchison’s marketing campaign crew mentioned he plans to launch a tour this summer season to win over supporters.

“[Aitchison] will continue to work to build a Conservative Party that can deliver the results and good government that Justin Trudeau is incapable or unwilling to provide,” a press release from his marketing campaign mentioned.

The marketing campaign for former Ontario MPP Roman Baber mentioned it is “optimistic” about the make-up of the membership.

“There is no question that our message of democracy had a material effect on all campaigns and the race as a whole,” Baber’s marketing campaign mentioned in a media assertion.

Ontario MP Leslyn Lewis’s marketing campaign additionally says she has a path to victory, though it did not launch its personal membership numbers.

“We absolutely believe that there continues to be a path to victory for Leslyn in this race, and we will continue to work towards that goal,” Lewis’s marketing campaign supervisor Steve Outhouse mentioned in a media assertion.

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